[期刊]Sustainability

[作者]Xu Kuang, Fuquan Zhao, Han Hao, Zongwei Liu*

[摘要]The deployment of intelligent connected vehicles (ICVs) is regarded as a significant solution to improve road safety, transportation management, and energy eciency. This study assessed the safety, traac, environmental, and industrial economic benefits of ICV deployment in China under different scenarios. A bottom-up model was established to deal with these impacts within a unified framework, based on the existing theories and literature of ICVs' cost–benefit analysis, as well as China's most recent policies and statistics. The results indicate that the total benefits may reach 13.25 to 24.02 trillion renminbi (RMB) in 2050, while a umulative benefit–cost ratio of 1.15 to 3.06 suggests high cost-effectiveness. However, if the government and industry only focus on their own interests,the break-even point may be delayed by several years. Hence, an effective business model is necessary to enhance public–private cooperation in ICV implementation. Meanwhile, the savings of travel time costs and fleet labor costs play an important part in all socioeconomic impacts. Therefore, the future design of ICVs should pay more attention to the utilization of in-vehicle time and the real substitution for human drivers.

[关键词]intelligent connected vehicle; socioeconomic impacts; cost–benefit analysis; scenario analysis; China

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